by Vernas Hefzy
At the heart of simmering regional conflicts, a recent report issued by some Israeli generals stands out as a disturbing prediction about the military future of the Middle East. With tensions rising between Egypt and Israel, signs of a potential escalation are looming. Perhaps most surprising are the military preparations undertaken by the Egyptian army. From establishing new military airports in Sinai to building bridges and preparing to produce unconventional weapons, Cairo appears to be gearing up for a new phase of confrontation, leaving Tel Aviv on alert and debating its ability to meet this growing challenge. Are we entering a new era of conflict, or are prospects for peace on the horizon? In this context, the report reviews intelligence expertise and in-depth analysis that may reveal more than meets the eye in the complex Arab-Israeli conflict.
Retired Lt. Col. Eliyahu Dekel, a former senior intelligence officer with Israel’s Mossad, said during a radio interview Sunday morning on the Oded Menashe program that there appears to be a worrying picture regarding Egypt’s military intentions.
According to Dekel, an analysis of recent Google Earth satellite images reveals that “the Egyptian army is constantly preparing for a confrontation with the IDF.”
Three Military Airports Established in Sinai
Eliyahu Dekel added that the Egyptian army has established three military airports in Sinai, noting, “Not just one military airport in Bir al-Qafgafa, but three military airports in Sinai.”
Dekel pointed out that the Egyptians have built approximately 60 bridges and crossings over the Suez Canal: “I don’t have any clause in the agreement that prevents them from building 600 bridges, but this indicates the Egyptian direction and mentality.”
When asked about Israeli intelligence’s ability to provide real-time warnings, he firmly replied, “I don’t trust our intelligence. I saw its capabilities in the 1980s war, so I certainly don’t trust it at all.”
According to him, even if there has been improvement since then, within a year and a half, there was a major failure during October 7.
Major General (res.) Yitzhak Brick said in an article in Maariv that Egypt is preparing for another disaster for Israel, and it could end very badly.
Brick explained in his article that since the outbreak of the war During the “Iron Swords” war, we witnessed a worrying deterioration in relations between Israel and Egypt.
It reached the point where Egypt decided not to send an ambassador to Israel, and as a result, Israel would not send an ambassador to Egypt either.
The truth is that Egypt is abandoning the peace treaty with Israel without explicitly announcing it, turning its back on us, and, moreover, creating working relationships, including arms purchases and joint military exercises, with countries considered Israel’s most sworn enemies.
Today, Egypt possesses the largest and most powerful army in the Middle East, and Israel has no response to this if Egypt decides to go to war against Israel.
Brick continued that the Israeli army currently does not have sufficient forces to deploy on the Egyptian border, whether in normal times or during wartime, noting that the IDF is incapable of defending against any Egyptian attack, and is certainly incapable of attacking the Egyptian army.
Major General Yitzhak Brick also pointed out in his article data he considered worrying regarding the Egyptian army.
This data represents a significant increase in manpower and weapons, with the Egyptian regular army experiencing a 30% growth in recent years. Recent.
Expanding Military Infrastructure: The Egyptian army has built infrastructure for storing tanks, artillery, mechanical engineering equipment (ME), and other equipment. This infrastructure has expanded in recent years from 300,000 square meters to 2.5 million square meters, indicating an astonishing pace of military expansion.
Preparations for Unconventional Weapons: Videos released by the Egyptians indicate that they are preparing chemical and biological weapons for war with Israel, in a relatively new factory visible through satellite imagery.
Analyzing Intentions vs. Capabilities: The IDF prepares for war based on an analysis of enemy intentions, not enemy capabilities.
The Egyptian army currently has approximately 180 battalions of all types in Sinai, four times the number agreed upon in the peace treaty, i.e., four divisions inside Sinai.
The Egyptians currently maintain four divisions inside Sinai, with significant forces stationed deep within Sinai, over 60 kilometers, such as in Arish and even near the border with Rafah.
Brick confirms that the Egyptians are preparing for war against Israel. This is also evident in the paving of roads and the construction of bunkers for storing ammunition, fuel, food, helicopter landing pads, and other equipment inside Sinai.
Weak Israeli Intelligence Coverage and Mistakes in Perception:
*Intelligence coverage of Sinai and the West of the Suez Canal: Intelligence coverage of Sinai is provided by 12 civilian employees in the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) who have received no training.
Headed by a lieutenant colonel in the permanent ranks, all the intelligence personnel, numbering in the hundreds, work in other sectors, including the best among them, and are largely unconcerned with what is happening in Sinai and the West of the Suez Canal.
There is no comprehensive intelligence coverage of what is happening in Egypt on the Canal and the West. Therefore, there is no monitoring by Israeli military intelligence of the strengthening of the Egyptian army in all areas, whether in terms of weapons of all kinds or in terms of new infrastructure, including factories used by the Egyptian army. The Israeli army is in a state of confusion regarding everything that is happening within the Egyptian army.
The Undeterrent Threat of Destroying the High Dam: Retired Major General Yitzhak Brick said that the assertion often made by Israelis and the military—that there is no reason to fear an Egyptian military attack on Israel, because Egyptian decision-makers know full well that Israel is capable of destroying the High Dam on the Nile River, which would flood the Nile Basin and cause the loss of tens of millions of Egyptian lives—is baseless. It can only be said that this “threat” to the Egyptians will not deter or prevent them from starting a war against Israel.
Brick also pointed out at the end of his article that Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir should focus on protecting Israel’s security from the looming danger, rather than entering into a war with Hamas and expanding the operation in Gaza as part of the Gideon Plan. He emphasized that the Israeli military will not achieve its goals and will fail miserably against Hamas. Moreover, he asserted that it will not be able to rehabilitate itself against future threats, which are a thousand times more dangerous than the threat from Hamas.
Major General Samir Farag, a military expert, stated that the Egyptian army has not violated the peace agreement signed with Israel, according to the specific provisions. He explained that Areas A, B, C, and D are located within Israel, and that Area A relates to the number of troops, with Egypt committing to a specific number of personnel, tanks, and artillery, while Areas B and C are concerned with border guard forces.
Farag indicated in exclusive statements to “Egypt Times” that a United Nations committee inspects the implementation of the agreement every 15 days to monitor any violations. He added that the Egyptian army has the right to raise its maximum state of readiness in light of the current circumstances, especially in light of the Israeli escalation in the Gaza Strip and the growing tension in the region, which explains the statements alleged by the Hebrew media.
He also emphasized the Egyptian army’s ability to fight any battle, believing this to be the primary reason behind Israeli concerns. He noted that the Egyptian army is considered the strongest in the Arab world and the leading force in Africa in terms of armament and diversification of its resources, thanks to the efforts of President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi.
Major General Nasr Salem, advisor to the Military Academy for Advanced Studies, said that Israel’s statements regarding the Egyptian army’s violation of the peace treaty concluded between Egypt and Israel are a distraction from Israel’s systematic killing and genocide of the Palestinian people.
Salem pointed out that these statements are merely a distraction to the Israeli Ministry of Defense’s mobilization of more than 420,000 reserve soldiers, claiming to be protecting itself from the Egyptian army.
Major General Nasr Salem emphasized that the Egyptian army is committed to the peace treaty and within the borders stipulated in the treaty, and that the Israeli statements are false allegations, especially at the present time, after global public opinion and European countries have turned against Israel.