December 5, 2024
The Future of Pakistan-US Relations in Trump’s 2.0 Presidency
Southeast Asia

The Future of Pakistan-US Relations in Trump’s 2.0 Presidency

by Maryam Noureen Janjua

The political dynamics of international relations often shift with the changing tides of leadership. The re-election of Donald Trump as the 47th President of the United States marks a critical juncture for countries around the world, including Pakistan. With the electoral votes projected to secure his victory in the 2024 US presidential elections, Pakistan has promptly extended its congratulations to Trump, expressing hope for a more enhanced and respectful relationship under his new administration. It is early to predict the trajectory of Pakistan-US relations under Donald Trump while acknowledging the challenges that both nations face.

Pakistan has long recognized the United States as a significant global power, both economically and geopolitically. The U.S. remains one of the largest buyers of Pakistani products despite the fact that China has launched its flagship program of CPEC in Pakistan under Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The U.S also remains one of Pakistan’s key partners, particularly in areas like security, counterterrorism and defense cooperation. With the re-election of Donald Trump, Pakistan is looking forward to a future where the US can play an active role in addressing the complexities of the South Asian region, including Afghanistan, India-Pakistan relations, and broader geopolitical challenges.

Trump’s previous term as president saw moments of both tension and cooperation between the two nations. On one hand, his “America First” foreign policy approach often led to strained relations, especially regarding Pakistan’s role in the Afghan conflict. On the other hand, there were also areas of cooperation, particularly in the military and counterterrorism domains. Given this history, Pakistan hopes that under Trump’s leadership, the US will engage constructively, respecting Pakistan’s sovereignty and acknowledging its significant role in fostering regional stability.

As Trump has promised ‘no wars’ under his presidency, the post U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan awaits his presidency to work closely with Pakistan to culminate his unfinished agenda of peace in Afghanistan. During Trump’s first term, Pakistan played a critical role in the US-led war in Afghanistan. Despite often being criticized for harboring insurgent groups, Pakistan was also a key ally in the effort to bring stability to Afghanistan. Perhaps most notably, Pakistan was instrumental in the safe extrication of Afghans who had supported the US efforts in Afghanistan during the chaotic withdrawal process in August 2021.

This humanitarian contribution underlined Pakistan’s willingness to support the US in critical moments, even when the broader political relationship faced challenges. With the US drawing down its military presence in the region, Pakistan’s role in ensuring peace and stability in Afghanistan will remain crucial, particularly in the context of US interests in preventing Afghanistan from becoming a hotbed for terrorist activities once again. However, Afghanistan should not remain the only junction point of US-Pakistan strategic partnership. Beyond security arrangements, both sides need to work closely on human development with the U.S. owing more responsibility to help Pakistan in getting out of the economic quagmire.

While the US has been a source of financial aid to Pakistan over the years, the economic relationship has often been fraught with challenges. Pakistan’s governments have been facing significant missteps in both economic and foreign policies, leaving the country grappling with financial instability and a growing fiscal deficit. The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) government, led by Imran Khan, inherited a difficult economic situation, characterized by high inflation, debt dependency, and low foreign exchange reserves. Additionally, international isolation due to Pakistan’s strained relationships with its neighbors further exacerbated these issues.

Pakistan and the United States share several common interests that could serve as a foundation for a closer partnership in the future. Both nations are committed to combating terrorism and extremism. Pakistan has made significant strides in addressing internal security challenges, including combating homegrown militant groups, and these efforts align with US priorities in the region. However, the future of economic stability and security in Pakistan also lies in the future of illegal Afghan immigrants. Although Pakistan has extended the stay of Afghans on the request of the U.S. and other human rights organizations, the timely and safe exit of these Afghans from Pakistan will bring stability in Pakistan.

Additionally, issues like climate change, global health crises, and humanitarian challenges offer opportunities for both nations to collaborate in meaningful ways. Pakistan is one of the countries most vulnerable to climate change, and it could benefit from US expertise in sustainable development, renewable energy, and disaster management. Apart from climate and health issues, the U.S. should help Pakistan in achieving its targets pertaining to Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

Regardless of the debate that Trump’s presidency may bring some political changes in Pakistan, both sides have a history of engaging on constructive issues – strategic partnerships. Pakistan stands ready to engage positively with the new US administration, but it will do so from a position of independence, emphasizing the importance of mutual respect and cooperation. As Pakistan continues its efforts to strengthen its economy and resolve internal challenges, it remains hopeful that with the right strategic direction, the US will be a partner in its journey toward stability, growth, and prosperity.

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