by Tural Rzayev
The President of the Republic of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, is on a working visit to Türkiye to attend the 4th Antalya Diplomacy Forum at the invitation of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. As part of this visit, the head of state has already held a number of important meetings.
One particularly noteworthy event was President Ilham Aliyev’s meeting with Ahmad al-Shara, the transitional President of the Syrian Arab Republic. During the meeting, President Aliyev invited Mr. al-Shara to visit Azerbaijan—an invitation that was graciously accepted.
Despite Ahmad al-Shara’s controversial past, he is currently recognized as the transitional president of Syria. His stance toward Azerbaijan appears constructive, and his willingness to cooperate is evident. This development is a positive signal for Baku.
Historically, relations between Baku and Damascus were strained both during the presidencies of Bashar al-Assad and his father Hafez al-Assad. Bashar al-Assad’s openly pro-Armenian policies further exacerbated tensions. In contrast, Ahmad al-Shara is demonstrating a clear interest in developing bilateral cooperation with Azerbaijan.
One could say that Türkiye is playing a bridge-building role between its ally Azerbaijan and the new Syrian administration it supports. Ankara aims to facilitate al-Shara’s emergence on the international stage and to shape the perception that the “new Syria” is distinct from the old regime. In this context, Azerbaijan is an invaluable partner.
Azerbaijan is a respected and trusted country in the Turkic world, the Islamic community, and the broader international arena. Moreover, official Baku places great emphasis on the rule of law, balanced diplomacy, and reliable cooperation. Thus, normalizing Azerbaijani-Syrian relations could enhance Syria’s international image as well.
Initially, Azerbaijan adopted a cautious approach toward al-Shara and the transitional Syrian government. However, with Türkiye’s encouragement, Baku now appears interested in cooperation. It is likely that Azerbaijan will apply the same balanced and pragmatic approach it has used in dealing with the Taliban in Afghanistan. As President Aliyev stated:
“Following the changes in Syria, an Azerbaijani delegation was sent to the country as quickly as possible, and our embassy in Damascus—which had remained inactive for many years due to Assad’s policies—has resumed operations.”
The normalization and development of Baku–Damascus relations could bring significant dividends for both countries. President Aliyev has expressed Azerbaijan’s readiness to contribute to Syria’s reconstruction efforts, which are essential for long-term stability. Furthermore, Syria may eventually become part of Azerbaijan’s broader energy strategy.
In recent years, Azerbaijan has emerged as a key player in Europe’s energy security. The volume of Azerbaijani gas exported to Europe continues to grow, but it still falls short of demand. Baku is already exploring potential partnerships with Iraq, particularly the Kurdistan Region. Syria’s shared land border with Türkiye could, in the future, provide it with access to the TANAP and TAP pipeline networks. Such cooperation could offer Syria a significant source of financial income.
Azerbaijan could also play a key role in Syria’s security and foreign diplomacy. Currently, Israel is closely monitoring developments in Syria, and the prospect of Turkish-Syrian cooperation has raised concerns in Tel Aviv. Azerbaijan could potentially mediate efforts to normalize relations between Israel and Syria. For example, Baku has already successfully facilitated a meeting between Turkish and Israeli officials. During that meeting, both sides agreed to establish a mechanism to reduce tensions and prevent unwanted incidents in Syria. A similar mechanism could potentially be agreed upon between Israel and Syria.
As I mentioned previously, the emerging diplomatic dynamic between Azerbaijan and Syria represents a unique and symbolic moment—what could be called “Nasimi Diplomacy.” As is well known, the grave of the great Azerbaijani poet Imadaddin Nasimi is located in Syria. The repatriation of his remains to Azerbaijan could serve as a significant cultural and diplomatic gesture, further strengthening bilateral relations.
The following discussion will explore the role of mediation in the context of regional rivalries, with a particular focus on the dynamics between Turkey, Israel, and Syria. Mediation between Regional Rivals
Balancing the interests of Turkey, Israel, and Syria:
The increasingly intricate regional terrain has witnessed Turkey assuming a facilitative role between Azerbaijan and Syria. Ankara’s endeavours to foster a “new Syria” that is distinct from the former regime are in alignment with Baku’s interest in the normalisation of relations with Damascus. Azerbaijan’s past success in mediating meetings between Turkish and Israeli officials underscores its potential to act as an effective mediator not only between Baku and Damascus, but also between other key regional players.
The reduction of security risks is a further key consideration.
The process of normalization encompasses more than just economic or cultural ties. By establishing a network of reliable diplomatic partners for Syria, Azerbaijan can contribute to the reduction of security tensions in the region. Given Israel’s close observation of developments in Syria and its expressed concerns regarding the potential for Turkish-Syrian military collaboration, the neutral mediator, Azerbaijan, could facilitate the establishment of confidence-building measures. A potential model for this could be the mechanism already being discussed between Turkish and Israeli officials, with Baku offering a structured dialogue aimed at reducing potential flashpoints in Syria.
The following essay will explore the potential diplomatic and economic dividends for Azerbaijan, as well as the risks and payoffs involved in its foreign policy.
For Azerbaijan, the successful fulfilment of its role as a bridge between Damascus and the world could yield substantial dividends. On the diplomatic front, it would increase Baku’s prestige among Turkic and Islamic peoples, strengthen its role in energy security discussions, and position it as a key mediator in one of the world’s most volatile regions. From an economic perspective, the establishment of robust bilateral relations with a transitional Syria could yield novel investment prospects in the domains of reconstruction, infrastructure, and energy.
However, it is imperative to acknowledge the inherent risks and the necessity for a balanced and pragmatic approach to ensure the optimal outcomes of this transition.
The transition process in Syria is still fragile, and Azerbaijan must overcome a number of challenges. The lingering effects of past tensions, the inherent volatility of any transitional government, and the reluctance of established regional actors to alter their allegiances, all pose significant risks. Furthermore, while Turkey and Israel may view Azerbaijan’s mediation positively, any miscalculation could lead to a resurgence of instability. It is therefore vital to take a balanced and pragmatic approach, as exemplified by Azerbaijan’s relations with the Taliban in Afghanistan, in order to ensure that diplomatic gains are sustainable and do not merely represent momentary gestures.