May 28, 2024
Impact of the Almaty meeting on the political processes in the South Caucasus
Caucasus Eurasia Europe Iran

Impact of the Almaty meeting on the political processes in the South Caucasus

By Rustam Taghizade

The meeting of the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia in Almaty, Kazakhstan, has come to an end. I would like to mention the role of the city of Almaty. Almaty is strengthening its image as a place for dialogue and the resolution of international conflicts, as demonstrated by the negotiations on Iran’s nuclear programme and other important events. After the meeting, the foreign ministers expressed their satisfaction with the meeting. “The parties agreed to continue negotiations on the outstanding issues where differences of opinion remain. The significance of the Almaty meeting is that the Azerbaijani and Armenian delegations negotiated in the absence of a mediator. The focus of attention between the West and Russia is currently on the South Caucasus.

There are many unresolved issues between Azerbaijan and Armenia. The most important of these is the border demarcation and delimitation process. In addition, four villages in Azerbaijan are still under Armenian occupation. Armenia has territorial claims against Azerbaijan in its constitution. Therefore, if Armenia wants peace, it must first change its constitution.

Russia, the US and France have interests in Armenia. Russia’s 102nd military base is in Armenia. Armenia has recently been armed by France and India. This increases the threat in the region. Armenia has also deployed a 1,000-strong observer mission on the border with Azerbaijan. This observer mission is made up of soldiers from France and other countries. As you can see, Nikol Pashinyan is playing a dangerous game. Consequently, Azerbaijan and Armenia could sign a peace treaty by the end of this year. But this will only happen if Armenia fully complies with Azerbaijan’s conditions.

What geopolitical processes can the Almaty meeting stimulate? I think this meeting can accelerate the Trans-Caspian project. The Azerbaijani factor is important because it is on the Silk Road from China to London. I also think that China should participate in the political process to open the Zangezur corridor. China has strong economic ties with Kazakhstan. I should also mention that Iran is also blocking the opening of the Zangezur corridor. Iran wants the corridor to go through its territory. However, political relations between Iran and Azerbaijan have recently normalised. In conclusion, the Almaty meeting can accelerate the political processes in the South Caucasus. The Russia-Ukraine war will also determine the acceleration of political processes in the South Caucasus.

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