by Giovanni Giacalone
A number of hostages are still in the hands of Hamas while its Gaza leaders, Yahya Sinwar and Mohammed Deif, are still in place and so are Ismail Haniyeh and Khaled Meshaal in Doha, since Qatar is unwilling to expel them. No surprise, considering that Qatar is not a “mediator” as many in the West unfortunately claim, but its is rather the diplomatic arm of Hamas, working side to side with the Khomeinist regime in Iran.
In the north of Israel, thousands of citizens are still displaced due to Hezbollah’s systematic attacks against civilian areas. In the meantime, last weekend, over 300 drones and missiles were launched directly from Iranian soil to Israel.
This situation is devastating for Israel’s economy, tourism, investments, for everyday life and it has been ongoing since the October 7th massacre.
Israel would have all the reasons of this world, the means and the capabilities to not just retaliate, but to finish the job, to eradicate Hamas from Gaza, to inflict serious losses to Hezbollah in the condition not to do any more harm. As John Bolton explained on numerous occasions, this is also the right time to hit the nuclear sites in Iran, because next time the regime will launch missiles against Israel, they will carry nuclear heads.
However, Israel is doing the exact opposite, continuously postponing the military offensive in Rafah that could put an end to Hamas and eventually bring back those hostages that are still alive. The military pressure on Hamas, which was supposed to be essential for the liberation of the hostages, has been eased, and rockets were once again launched from Gaza toward Israeli soil.
The continuous proclamations about the imminent attack on Rafah, not followed by concrete facts, do nothing but show the weakness of the Israeli government which now appears much more worried about what the Biden administration says, rather than about its own security.
Unfortunately, the response seen against Iran is a photocopy of what is happening in Rafah. Netanyahu does not want to upset Biden and therefore, while making strong statements such as “we do what we think is best for Israel”, in practice he is doing exactly the opposite, showing a weakness that puts at serious risk the survival of the Jewish State in an area, the Middle East, where the law of strength is fundamental in order to survive.
Even Donald Trump told Netanyahu to quickly finish the job in Rafah, because it became evident that things were being carried on for way too long, going against any basic concept of counter-terror and military response.
The director of the International Institute for Counter-Terrorism in Herzliya, Boaz Ganor, explained very clearly how the practical equation of terrorism is “motivation X operational capacity”. In order to have short term efficiency, the counter-terror campaign must be effective in disabling the terrorist organization from perpetrating further attacks while, in the long term, it is essential to lower the terrorist motivation.
A military campaign that does not disable the organization’s operational capabilities will only increase the terrorist motivation and will expose the State to further attacks.
This is exactly what is happening in Gaza as Hamas has not been eradicated, it is still able to harm and, until it is eradicated, it won’t be possible to start working on counter-motivation.
On a larger scale, this is also what is happening with Hezbollah. Iran is using Hezbollah to make life in the north impossible and the limited response by the IDF is only increasing the Shia’s confidence. Unfortunately, this manner of handling things also increased Teheran’s confidence.
Did Iran respond in the way it did last weekend against Israel when the United States eliminated general Qassem Soleimani? Obviously not.
However, Iran did launch over 300 drones and missiles against Israel in response to the Damascus raid against IRGC commanders. It is the first time that an enemy of Israel launches such an intense attack directly from its own soil and this is a very dangerous precedent.
The question is no longer even that of asking why the Biden administration is trying in every way to slow down Israel, given the sympathies of many members of the administration towards Islamism and the openness towards Teheran. Instead, we must ask ourselves why Netanyahu continues to listen to them, putting at risk its credibility but also the stability and very existence of Israel.