by Mohammed Salem Mujawar On May 2, 2026, as the region was in the midst of the height of the “war over energy corridors”—with the Strait of Hormuz nearly completely closed and threats returning to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait—the oil tanker “Eureka” was sailing in the Gulf of Aden when its automatic identification system […]
By Amb. Prof. Mohamed A. Qubaty When geography becomes leverage, the narrowest waterways carry the greatest strategic weight. The Middle East isn’t stabilizing. It’s stalling. What we are witnessing is not a transition toward resolution, but a prolonged state of strategic limbo — a condition where conflicts are neither escalating into full-scale war nor resolving […]
by Mohammed Salem Mujawar An Analysis of Recent Developments in the Yemeni Conflict and Its Options in Light of the Islamabad Negotiations Executive Summary Six weeks after the violent escalation that began with a U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran (February 28, 2026), the War of the Corridors is no longer a passing crisis remote from our […]
By Amb. Prof. Mohamed Qubaty The Structural Limits of Maritime Deterrence For much of the past decade, international approaches to Red Sea security have focused on maritime deterrence: naval patrols, interdictions, and multinational coalitions designed to contain immediate threats. These measures have played an important stabilizing role, ensuring continuity of global trade and energy flows […]
By Amb. Dr. Mohamed Qubaty For more than a decade, the Middle East has lived under a paradox that is rarely acknowledged explicitly: the more the international community fears escalation, the longer destabilizing actors survive. What was once presented as prudence and restraint has gradually evolved into a strategic pattern of hesitation, in which avoiding […]
By Amb. Dr. Mohamed Qubaty The Security Council’s move reflects a broader realization: partial conflict management has failed, and the Red Sea crisis is forcing a recalibration of Yemen strategy. The Failure of the Freeze The UN Security Council’s move to terminate the UN Mission to Support the Hodeidah Agreement (UNMHA) is being framed in […]
By Ahmed Atef, Ph.D At the beginning The Federation of South Arabia was the name of a country located at the south of Yemen and was under British rule for 129 years (from 1839 to 1967). The South Arabian delegation who negotiated the agreement of independence in November 1967 opted to change the name of […]
By Amb. Dr. Mohamed Qubaty How restraint without Yemeni leverage turned crisis management into a doctrine of permanent escalation. One year after early warnings that U.S. restraint in Yemen was backfiring, the Red Sea crisis has become less an emergency than a condition—managed, mitigated, and endlessly postponed, but never resolved. What was once treated as […]
By: Amb. Dr. Mohamed Qubaty The Houthis’ unusually explicit messaging through al-Masirah marks a dangerous turning point in one of the most volatile security environments in the Middle East. Their announcement declaring the Oman-mediated roadmap dead is not a routine expression of revolutionary rhetoric but a calculated signal of escalation. As analysts such as Fatima […]
By Amb. Dr. Mohamed Qubaty What is unfolding today across the Middle East is not the calm after Gaza, but the re-emergence of competing security architectures — a tangled web where trade routes and power balances intersect. From the Red Sea to the Levant, the region faces a defining moment: either it drifts into a […]