By Amb. M. A. Qubaty
A Defining Regional Moment
The arc stretching from Gaza to the Red Sea, from Lebanon to Yemen and across to the Arabian Sea, is entering a perilous new phase. The region is no longer defined by Gaza alone, but by a wider confrontation pitting Israel against Iran and its regional proxies, with the United States reasserting itself as it seeks to redraw the rules of deterrence and influence. What lies ahead is not simply a “day after Gaza” scenario, but a broader security equation spanning maritime chokepoints, regional airspaces, and multiple battlefronts.
Gaza: A Laboratory for International Custodianship
Washington’s proposals for a transitional administration in Gaza may appear at first as an administrative fix to a political and security dilemma. In reality, they reflect a more ambitious American blueprint for the “day after.” The White House is betting on sidelining Hamas, installing a “substitute authority” under international and Arab cover, and creating a de facto international trusteeship.
Yet this plan faces daunting obstacles: rejection from Hamas, hesitation in Netanyahu’s Israel, and divisions among Arab states. For Iran, Gaza is not an isolated front but one of several levers to keep Israel mired in attritional conflict.
Lebanon: A Northern Flashpoint
To the north, Hezbollah stands on the brink of a potential full-scale confrontation with Israel. While mutual deterrence still operates, the risk of escalation remains high. For Tehran, Lebanon is too valuable a card to sacrifice. It ensures Israel remains vulnerable to a northern front should a partial settlement emerge in Gaza. Lebanon, therefore, functions as Iran’s safety valve—guaranteeing that the wider struggle cannot be extinguished even if Gaza is temporarily pacified.
From Bab al-Mandeb to the Arabian Sea
Southwards, the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandeb have become no less perilous than Gaza or Lebanon. Yet the threat has now spilled into the Arabian Sea itself. The Houthi missile strike on the Dutch vessel Minervagracht in the Gulf of Aden was a chilling signal of intent: Tehran’s Yemeni proxy is no longer confining its attacks to Israel-linked shipping but extending its reach to European and Asian trade routes.
From the Suez Canal to the Indian Ocean, critical maritime arteries risk becoming hostages to Iran’s strategy of calibrated escalation. By weaponizing the Houthis’ capacity to disrupt global shipping, Tehran seeks leverage far beyond Yemen. The Red Sea and Arabian Sea are no longer regional flashpoints but global ones, where energy flows and food security for Europe and Asia alike hang in the balance.
Washington’s Dilemma
The United States faces an acute test. On the one hand, it cannot allow the Houthis to hold international shipping at risk. On the other, it is wary of being dragged into another open-ended ground war in Yemen. For now, Washington has reinforced its naval presence with carrier groups and declared “freedom of navigation” a red line.
But a more assertive option is gaining traction: introducing “boots on the ground” indirectly, by organizing, training, and equipping Yemen’s internationally recognized government forces to serve as a joint ground arm of a potential new coalition tasked with securing the Red Sea and Arabian Sea. This would allow the U.S. and its allies to avoid deploying their own troops directly, while still mounting a coordinated campaign to neutralize the Houthi threat to global commerce.
Iran’s Multi-Claw Strategy
Every thread of this unfolding drama leads back to Tehran. Iran is orchestrating a complex strategy of “multiple claws”:
– Hezbollah in Lebanon, to deter Israel and keep its northern front volatile.
– Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza, to bleed Israel and disrupt stability.
– Iraqi militias, to pressure U.S. forces and assets in the region.
– The Houthis in Yemen, as a strategic extension threatening Bab al-Mandeb and the Arabian Sea.
This is not simply about harassing Israel—it is about asserting that no security architecture in the Middle East, the Red Sea, or the Gulf can exist without Iran at the table.
The Comprehensive Equation
The regional struggle is no longer a patchwork of local conflicts but a systemic battle for influence:
1. Gaza has shifted from a Palestinian domestic file to a testing ground for international trusteeship.
2. Lebanon looms as a potential theater of major war should Israel attempt to dismantle Hezbollah’s deterrent.
3. Yemen, the Red Sea, and the Arabian Sea have become global bargaining chips, extending Iran’s leverage to the international level.
4. The United States and Europe seek to reset deterrence but may find themselves drawn into direct confrontation with Tehran’s proxies.
5. Israel, while buoyed by Western support, risks being engulfed in a multi-front war.
Conclusion: Between Deterrence and Conflagration
What we are witnessing is not simply a “post-war Gaza” scenario, but the emergence of a new geopolitical order shaped by force and blood. Washington edges toward a naval—and possibly proxy ground—campaign against the Houthis. Israel weighs striking Hezbollah to end the northern threat. Iran continues to play all its cards in a multi-claw strategy designed to outlast and outmaneuver its rivals.
The region now teeters between two futures: a spiral into a protracted regional war, or the forging of a new balance of deterrence that secures maritime trade and shields regional populations from endless conflict. For now, the weight of probability tilts toward escalation. The battle of the straits may yet define the balance of power in the Middle East for years to come.