by Damir Zaidullayev
Astana, March 20, 2025 — President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev met with U.S. Congresswoman Carol Miller to discuss key aspects of the bilateral relationship between Kazakhstan and the United States. Against the backdrop of shifting geopolitical dynamics and cuts in U.S. foreign aid, the meeting underscored the evolving nature of Kazakhstan-U.S. cooperation and raised critical questions about the future of their partnership. Beyond trade and security, this evolving relationship reflects broader geopolitical shifts, economic realignments, and Kazakhstan’s growing role as a diplomatic player in regional and global affairs.
Since gaining independence, Kazakhstan has cultivated a strategic partnership with the United States, emerging as a key player in Central Asia. Washington has historically supported Astana in economic development, security cooperation, and nuclear non-proliferation. However, in 2025, amid budgetary constraints, global power shifts, and resource reallocation, Kazakhstan finds itself navigating a new reality where economic ties, geopolitical positioning, and regional diplomacy are increasingly interconnected.
According to President Tokayev, Kazakhstan and the United States have made significant progress in areas such as regional security, economic cooperation, and investment. With bilateral trade surpassing $4 billion, the U.S. remains one of Kazakhstan’s largest foreign investors. Yet, as Washington reassesses its global aid commitments and focuses on strategic investments, Kazakhstan is shifting from an aid recipient to a regional hub for energy, technology, and diplomatic mediation—a transition that demands a recalibration of bilateral priorities.
For years, USAID (the United States Agency for International Development) has played a crucial role in Kazakhstan’s development, funding projects in economic growth, healthcare, and democratic governance. In recent years, Kazakhstan received millions of dollars from USAID to support private sector growth, anti-corruption measures, and civil society initiatives. However, in 2025, the Trump Administration announced significant cuts to USAID’s budget, leading to reductions in foreign aid programs, particularly in Central Asia.
The reduction in USAID funding extends beyond direct financial support, influencing broader economic and geopolitical trends. With fewer grants available, Kazakhstan may need to recalibrate its approach to democratic and economic reforms. Many initiatives that previously benefited from American funding, including support for governance transparency and public sector innovation, could face financial uncertainty, forcing Kazakhstan to seek alternative donors or shift toward private-sector-driven solutions.
This transformation could open the door for increased influence from Russia and China, both of which have actively expanded their economic and political footprint in Central Asia. With declining U.S. engagement in traditional development assistance, Kazakhstan risks becoming more economically dependent on Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and Moscow’s Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). As Kazakhstan weighs its options, the energy and technology sectors are emerging as key pillars for rebalancing economic ties with Washington and maintaining geopolitical equilibrium.
Kazakhstan and the United States continue to explore new areas of collaboration beyond traditional development aid. Energy security remains a priority, as Kazakhstan, one of the region’s top oil exporters, accelerates its shift toward renewable energy sources. The U.S. has the potential to support Kazakhstan’s energy transition by providing advanced technology in hydrogen energy, wind, and solar power. Given the global focus on decarbonization, increased cooperation in this area could open new opportunities for investment and technology transfer.
However, energy cooperation is not just an economic issue, it is a geopolitical tool that intersects with transport and digital connectivity. The Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (Middle Corridor), which connects China, Central Asia, and Europe without relying on Russian transit routes, represents a strategic opportunity for Kazakhstan to solidify its economic independence. The success of this corridor depends on investment in both physical infrastructure and digital logistics systems an area where U.S. companies specializing in artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, and cloud computing could play a pivotal role.
Digital transformation in Kazakhstan is closely tied to both energy security and geopolitical stability. A modern, tech-driven transport and logistics system not only enhances Kazakhstan’s attractiveness for foreign investors but also strengthens its diplomatic leverage by offering a reliable transit alternative to Russian-controlled routes. Thus, Kazakhstan’s energy and technology partnerships with the U.S. are not just economic initiatives, they are key components of a broader geopolitical strategy that could position the country as a bridge between East and West.
The meeting between Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and Carol Miller signals that Kazakhstan and the United States are adapting their partnership to evolving geopolitical and economic realities. As USAID funding diminishes, Kazakhstan is transitioning from a development aid recipient to a strategic player in energy, technology, and diplomacy. The U.S., in turn, is shifting from traditional foreign aid toward investment-driven economic engagement, reflecting a broader realignment of global power structures.
Whether Kazakhstan will remain a strategic priority for Washington or whether shifting global interests will lead to a downgraded engagement remains to be seen. However, Kazakhstan’s multifaceted foreign policy, growing role as a transport and energy hub, and potential diplomatic leverage indicate that it will continue to be a key actor in international affairs.